Corporate Overview

Daly Asset Management specializes in equity portfolio construction and investment management. General Partner of affiliated investment vehicles and a strategic platform for developing differentiated investment strategies and financial content. Through its subsidiaries and partnerships, DAM operates across advisory, research, and capital deployment segments with a focus on long-term value creation, contrarian insights, and scalable, systematized investing.

At Daly Asset Management, we offer a suite of independent, research-driven investment strategies designed to help individuals and institutions build durable wealth. Through our platform (soon to be launched at dalyassetmanagement.com), investors can explore actively managed portfolios with clear strategy descriptions, performance tracking, and direct access.

We specialize in:

• High-conviction equity strategies grounded in fundamental research

• Income-focused portfolios using dividend stocks, covered calls, and synthetic bonds

• Tactical and thematic models capturing long-term trends and short-term dislocations

All strategies are accessible through a transparent, digital-first experience whether you're a self-directed investor, advisor, or allocator.

Last week snapshot and commentary

 The week of June 23rd through June 27th was an eventful week. As per normal, I’ll highlight the important market news, eventful earnings releases, and brief thoughts about the last week. (For thoughts on the market going forward, see the “Forward View” segment).

Highlighted Economic Events for the Week 06/23-06/27

Monday, June 23, 2025

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

• Existing Home Sales (May)

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

• CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)

• Fed Chair Powell Testifies

• 2-Year Note Auction

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

• Fed Chair Powell Testifies

• New Home Sales (May)

Thursday, June 26, 2025

• GDP (Q1)

• Initial Jobless Claims

• 7-Year Note Auction

Friday, June 27, 2025

• Core PCE Price Index (May)

• Personal Income (May)

Highlighted Corporate Earnings Releases for the Week 06/23-06/27

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

• Micron (MU) 139.62B Market Cap

  • EPS 1.91 vs Estimated 1.59

  • Revenue 9.3B vs Estimated 8.84B

Thursday, June 26, 2025

• Nike (NKE) 106.33B Market Cap

  • EPS 0.14 vs Estimated 0.12

  • Revenue 11.1B vs Estimated 10.7B

Index Closing Prices for the Week 06/30-07/04

Equity Indices

Equity indices had a strong week, closing the day Friday up roughly 3.5% on aggregate since Monday the 23rd. Driven primarily by continuing sentiment improvement over US trade relations with… well, the entire world. Gas prices hit the lowest price in the US in four years, continuing the trend starting in 2023, after the initial shock driven by the war in Ukraine and subsequent trade restrictions placed on Russia by major western nations.

An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities negligibly impacted markets, with the exclusion of oil prices, which saw a major leap before falling and settling lower on the week, having one of the largest drops in history Monday. Oil producers, still trending up, did experience some bearish price action due to the drop in oil prices, but nothing too significant.

Trump’s white house holds conflicting views to major news outlets as to the extent of the damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities and capabilities, with sources outside of the white house claiming that the majority of Iran’s production capability was moved out prior to the strike, while the white house claims the strike “Obliterated Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities.” Looking as always to the politically neutral source of “where does the market think reality leans,” we can view Polymarkets “Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?” contract, leaning 99.2% in favor of destruction. That doesn’t account for movement of the enriched uranium, which is what the majority of outlets claim, but does endorse president Trump’s claim that the facility was rendered unusable, at least setting Iran back- the extent to which can be debated- in the process of nuclearization.

Nvidia broke all time highs to roar to $157.75 a share on Friday, ending the week up an impressive 10.70%. 

The 1 year chart on the S&P 500 breaks an RSI of 70, officially entering “overbought” territory by the metric. The MACD gives a differing signal, with a golden crossover.

All in all, volatile markets are likely behind us for a while, with the market being “rebalanced,” in that stocks more exposed to tariffs are now trading for a more defensive valuation, such as Apple, which is still over 20% below it’s all time highs of $260 a share, at just $200. I expect the market to be temporarily range bound, unless any significant catalysts appear, but do have concerns over the worst case scenarios available due to the lack of closure seen in the tariff space.

10-Year Yield

The 10-Year treasury yield settled slightly lower, dipping 25 basis points below the target federal funds rate, with investors pricing in an additional rate cut as likely in 2025. I consider long term bonds to be a solid investment for those who can hold onto them, but risky for those looking to exit within 3 years, as instability with regards to the US debt and interest rates still need to be worked out in the following months.

Gold

Gold settled lower, exemplary of its traditional inverse relationship with equity markets, as investors began the switch back to more risky investments. I believe gold to be a strong buy now, as with 10-Years, gold maintains a safe haven aspect that will only get stronger as the US dollar continues to weaken relative to other currencies.

Gold is no longer a bet against equities- but a bet against the dollar. The US dollar is about to enter a period of significant uncertainty, down over 10% on the year in the most under-discussed bearish signal this year, leaving that dollar- even the ones under your mattress- worth 90 cents of December's dollar.

The weakening of the dollar also means higher inflation is likely to appear over the coming years, as international businesses require higher amounts of US dollars to maintain stable margins in the international money market.

Bitcoin

Maintaining its positive correlation with equities, Bitcoin continues to defy its own supporters' claim of being a safe haven, following the market up over 30% since the April lows. Breaking $100k a coin back in December, Bitcoin is up almost 8% since then, a strong showing by the currency that many are skeptical of. Bitcoin is likely to outperform over the coming years as the dollar weakens while purchasers remain confident in the risk. Truly an odd situation, and one extremely beneficial for Bitcoin, will be a weakening US dollar driven by solely political fears. It will encourage investors to take on even more risk, as they need additional dollars to purchase the same amount of goods, however is typically a sign of a poor economy.

Stock of the Week: $DSWL

Introduction

 Deswell Industries, a stock trading below $3.00 per share, commands a fair value of $6, and could potentially unlock this valuation in the near future. So what does this $2.50 microcap stock have that I saw? Well let’s dive in!

 Deswell Industries, Inc. produces injection-molded plastic parts and components, and engages in assembly of electrical products, metallic molds, and accessories. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Macau, China. Looked at in the early 2000's by Michael Burry, Deswell has attracted value investors for over two decades, grabbing my eye due to its high cash balance, and the extent to which it was undervalued encouraged further research, which suggested there was a sizable opportunity to exploit.

With a dividend yield of 8%, Deswell clearly has a significant amount of cash handy, but the amount relative to its market cap will likely surprise you. With a market cap of just under $40M, Deswell holds over $96 million (USD equivalent) worth of current assets, comprised primarily of marketable securities, time deposits, and accounts receivable, and when subtracting $9 million (USD equivalent) to account for inventories, Deswell holds over $83 million (USD equivalent) worth of highly liquid current assets, ~$5.20 a share, more than double Deswell's current share price.

Throughout this free analysis, I'll discuss the potential reasons for Deswell's low valuation relative to our $6.00 price target, the risks inherent to investing in a company of this size, and the potential reward of being a long term holding in Deswell, a holding you can gain significant exposure to through our DAM Core Top Five (Coming soon) strategy, as well as many more on our platform!

See the free analysis here: https://dalyam.beehiiv.com/p/stock-of-the-week-6-30-7-4

Theme to Watch: “The Fed’s Credibility Gap”

I’m going to be short and brief with this section because it’s important to grasp the key details. The Federal Reserves’ public stance is not in line with the markets view on their stance. This could cause significant volatility in Q3, as markets look to the Fed to retroactively justify the expectation placed on equities, bonds, and crypto.

The Federal Reserve's “Higher for Longer” stance is being increasingly called out by the market as a bluff, with 10-Year Yields pricing in a minimum of 1 rate cut by end of year. Below is a graph of the 10-Year Yield being lower than the target federal funds rate by almost exactly 25 basis points, indicating considerable market belief in at least one rate cut in 2025.

US 10-Year Yield and Target Fed Funds Rate

 While the Fed claims to be maintaining a flexible, reactive stance, rather than a proactive stance, the market isn’t folding, but rather calling the Fed’s bluff.

• Long-duration assets (tech, real estate, Treasuries) are sniffing rate cuts

• Regional banks are rallying, betting on margin relief

• Dollar strength is wobbling

• Gold and Bitcoin are catching a bid again

The effects of this could be severe if inflation comes in differently to expected. If inflation undershoots again, expect volatility in yields, dollar, and risk-on assets as markets challenge the Fed’s delay. With inflation still hovering above target and labor markets resilient, this divergence could become a key source of volatility heading into

Weekly Wildcard: Unemployment Rate (Jun)

 Other than the obvious Powell conference, happening Tuesday, the US Unemployment Rate is going to be released Thursday, the third, at 08:30. The data will mostly be looked at to provide further insight into the Fed’s stance on rate cuts. When it ticks up, markets start pricing in rate cuts faster, betting the Fed will act to cushion economic weakness. A low or falling rate, on the other hand, signals labor market strength and gives the Fed cover to stay restrictive. In short: higher unemployment spooks Main Street but can cheer Wall Street if it means easier money is on the way. Watch this metric as it's often the first crack before the Fed actually starts to pivot.
 The forecast is a 4.3% rate, with a 4.2% rate being previous. Unemployment coming in cool at 4.2% could hurt the market, as it would further support the Fed’s “Higher for Longer” rate stance

Forward View

Highlighted Economic Events for the Week 06/30-07/04

Monday, June 30, 2025

• Chicago PMI (Jun)

• 3-Month Bill Auction

• 6-Month Bill Auction

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

• Fed Chair Powell Speaks

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

• JOLTS Job Openings (May)

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)

Thursday, July 3, 2025

• Initial Jobless Claims

• Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)

• Unemployment Rate (Jun)

Friday, July 4, 2025

• Sleep in! Nothing to highlight! 

• (Events are always happening, but we determined the ones Friday to be insignificant enough to pass over.)

Highlighted Corporate Earnings Releases for the Week 06/30-07/04

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

• Constellation Brands A (STZ) 28.54B Market Cap

  • EPS Estimated 3.41

  • Revenue Estimated 2.56B

Daly Asset Management News

Price Target Changes

On dalyassetmanagement.com you will be able to subscribe to track your favorite companies' price targets! The following are the price target adjustments we elected to make public via our newsletter. See a stocks entire price target history relative to the price history on our website coming in just weeks!

Air Canada (ACDVF) has received a 1-Year cut to $22.50, and a 3-Year cut to $30.00. We are maintaining it at a 1-Year “Buy” and a 3-Year “Strong Buy.” This is on the back of poorer than expected cross-Atlantic tourism due to geopolitical tensions between… The United States and Europe…

 Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) has received a 1-Year hike to $125.00, and a 3-Year hike to $175.00. We are maintaining it as a 1-Year and 3-Year “Strong Buy.”

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Final Notes

As we head into a shortened trading week with markets closed Friday for the Fourth of July, volatility may thin out — but don’t mistake that for calm. The data this week is front-loaded, with Powell speaking Tuesday and critical labor reports hitting Thursday. Markets remain caught between the Fed’s cautious tone and investor optimism around rate cuts, and the tension isn’t going anywhere just yet.

Deswell ($DSWL) continues to be our high-conviction value play, and we’ll be monitoring developments closely, including any movement on dividend policy.

If you haven’t already, be sure to follow us on X/Twitter and keep an eye on our upcoming platform launch at dalyassetmanagement.com, where you’ll be able to track price targets, follow new strategies, and dig deeper into our stock research.

See you next Monday. Until then stay sharp, stay skeptical, and stay invested.

— Daly Asset Management