Markets Are Flying Blind — Time to Lean Into Real Signals

Corporate Overview

It’s a strange week to write a macro letter: the data, our usual compass, is being turned off — literally. A government shutdown has resulted in the cancellation or delay of key economic releases, leaving the market in something closer to “flying blind” status. Shadow indicators — private payroll models, bank card data, and real-time activity trackers — are now doing the heavy lifting.

Here at Daly Asset Management, we don’t pretend to guess policy narratives or chase thematic fad stocks. We run systematic, data-driven strategies. No AUM fees. No fluff. No conflicts. We build maps of regime shifts and detect mispricings — and when the fundamental map disappears (as now), we lean harder on alternative edge. If you’re tired of fluff from “macro gurus” who never admit being lost, you’re in the right place.

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💡 Stock of the Week: Shield Therapeutics (LON: STX)

Sector: Biopharmaceuticals | Market Cap: ≈ £70 million | Ticker: STX.L | 1-Year Return: +110%

Shield Therapeutics isn’t a household name — and that’s the point. In a week where investors are trading shadows rather than data, this small-cap biotech has quietly delivered a 110% total shareholder return over twelve months and an even more staggering 202% rally over the last quarter. That kind of move isn’t random speculation; it’s tied to a near-doubling in annual revenue (+93% YoY) as the company gains traction commercializing its flagship iron-deficiency treatment, Accrufer (ferric maltol).

In a market that’s punishing unprofitable growth, STX has carved out a niche: a loss-making company with explosive top-line acceleration and a credible path to breakeven. The market is starting to re-rate revenue-momentum plays with defensible science — not just hype — and Shield sits squarely in that camp. Its modest CEO pay and lean operating model contrast sharply with bloated biotech peers, giving investors a cleaner exposure to execution, not excess.

Why It Matters in This Macro Tape
When the macro compass is spinning, investors default to micro-specific catalysts — and biotech offers them in spades. Shield’s trajectory reflects a broader pattern: smaller, real-asset-anchored or clinical-stage firms are finding new capital as mega-caps stall. In a data blackout, the market is rewarding tangible progress — a reminder that alpha hides where liquidity doesn’t.

Risks to Watch
Shield remains pre-profit and relies on continued prescription growth and distribution partnerships to sustain momentum. Regulatory headwinds or funding shortfalls could easily swing sentiment. And after a 200% rally in three months, volatility is baked in.

Verdict
We’re not calling it a core holding — but as a tactical trade in the current “blind macro” environment, STX represents precisely the kind of under-the-radar, revenue-driven asymmetric the broader market is missing. In a world chasing AI and tariffs, sometimes the real growth story is in iron tablets.

Market Snapshot (Week of October 6-10)

*Approximate weekly closes.

Investors leaned into risk again — small caps and cyclical assets outperformed. The drop in 10-year yields signals a hawkish overhang easing, especially given weaker shadow data. Gold strength reflects persistent inflation anxiety. The rotation is subtle: away from extreme growth beta toward durable cyclicals and value.

📊 Market Commentary

U.S. Macro: Shaky Signals, Mirror Testing
The official September nonfarm payrolls were shelved due to the shutdown, creating a void in the data flow. In their place, private models suggest hiring slowed sharply — perhaps just +17,000 jobs added. Job openings continue to drift lower, confirming that labor demand is cooling, not collapsing. The Fed is cornered: data too weak to resist dovish pressure, inflation too sticky to pivot fully.

Structural Themes: Tariffs, AI Capex, Reshoring
Tariffs remain a latent inflation tax. The drive to reshore and build redundancy into supply chains is accelerating, fueling demand for capital goods, infrastructure, and automation. Meanwhile, corporate AI spending continues regardless of macro softness — a secular offset to cyclical weakness.

Geopolitics & Commodities: The BRICS Play and Energy Reversion
A softer U.S. dollar and expanding BRICS coordination are shifting global flows toward commodity producers and local-currency EM debt. OPEC remains price-protective. Copper, lithium, and rare earths are tightening. A renewed commodity upcycle is quietly forming.

Institutional Flows & Volatility Trends
Global equity funds saw an $11-month high inflow heading into October. Yet systematic hedge funds are quietly de-grossing, reducing exposure after a long stretch of crowded trades. Volatility remains low in print but high in potential energy — skew steepened, hedging demand rising.

Equity Rotation: Value & Industrials Gaining Traction
Investors are gradually rotating toward balance: quality cyclicals and industrials gaining while mega-cap growth consolidates. The smartest capital is not abandoning tech — it’s recalibrating weightings for resilience.

🧭 Tactical Map: Where to Lean In

• Quality cyclicals and industrials with optionality

• Commodity and base metal exposure

• Select EM equities tied to real assets or clean tech

• Long duration or real-yield hedges (TIPS, sovereign linkers)

• Quant and alternative alpha strategies — dispersion is opportunity

🔍 Theme to Watch: Policy Regime Uncertainty as Asset Class

We’re entering the acceleration phase of industrial policy. Governments and firms alike are racing to de-risk from geopolitical supply chains by building domestic capacity. That means more spending on robotics, logistics, and infrastructure — reshaping capital allocation for the next decade. For investors, it’s not about timing policy headlines but capturing the long arc of cost realignment and technological adoption.

📅 Forward View: Oct 13-17, 2025

• Possible Data Releases: PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production (pending shutdown resolution)

• Fed Speak: Multiple regional presidents on deck; markets listening for dovish shifts

• Earnings Season: Major banks to report — watch net interest margin compression and credit quality

• Geopolitical Watch: EM currency volatility and commodity exporter policy signals

• Technical Levels:

  • S&P support: 4,600–4,650

  • Resistance: 4,800–4,850

  • 10-year yield support: ~3.90%

  • Resistance: 4.25–4.35%

If yields break above 4.35%, it’s a regime shift back to hawkish risk-off. A drop below 3.90% signals surrender to easing bets.

💬 Final Words

Markets are flying blind this week — the official data flow is off. But that’s precisely when alternatives matter most.
We believe the regime tilt is toward commodity strength, industrial resilience, and selective structural alpha.

Daly AM is built for this: data-driven, no hidden fees, and designed for investors who think for themselves.

Disclosures: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.