AI Doesn’t Run on Ideas — It Runs on Power

Corporate Overview

Daly Asset Management specializes in equity portfolio construction and investment management. We serve as General Partner of affiliated investment vehicles and develop differentiated strategies across research, advisory, and capital deployment — all focused on long-term value creation and scalable, systematized investing.

Launching soon at dalyassetmanagement.com, our platform gives investors access to high-conviction strategies, real-time performance tracking, and transparent decision-making — no hidden fees, no sales agenda.

We specialize in:

• Deep value and GARP strategies rooted in fundamental research

• Income models using dividends, covered calls, and synthetic bond ladders

• Tactical and thematic portfolios targeting macro dislocations and structural change

Whether you're a self-directed investor, advisor, or allocator — our tools are built for those who think independently and invest intentionally.

Inflation Is Wearing Tariffs Now

The market's still flirting with all-time highs. But under the surface? Stress fractures are forming — not from panic, but from pressure.

This week’s CPI print confirmed what many hoped wasn’t true: inflation is back in motion. Up 0.3% in June, driven by the usual suspects — food, shelter, and now tariffs.

Trump’s 30–50% import taxes are no longer campaign threats. They’re showing up in your grocery bill, in your furniture order, and in the commodities market.

Bond yields are rising. Fed cut odds are fading. And yet — equity investors seem unfazed. Maybe they shouldn’t be.

Market Snapshot: July 14–18, 2025

CPI (June): +2.7% YoY (↑ from May’s 2.4%)
Core CPI: +2.9% YoY | +0.2% MoM (below expectations)
Retail Sales: +0.3% MoM
Empire State Manufacturing Index: 5.5 (vs. -11.6 prior)

Market Commentary: The Fog of War Is Monetary

Powell has a problem.

The Fed’s credibility is being quietly hollowed out. CPI is up, jobless claims are down (227K), and yet the market is still pricing in two rate cuts this year. That’s wishful thinking — not policy forecasting.

The 30-year yield just crossed 5%. That’s the market saying: “You’re not cutting.”

But the real stressor isn’t in the data. It’s in the design.

This is what policy fragility looks like — a world where the central bank can’t ease without triggering another inflation cycle, and can’t tighten without risking a crash landing. Welcome to the tightrope.

Call it a “soft landing” if you want — but you’re walking through a minefield.

AI Needs Power, and Power Needs Capital

This week, Trump announced $70 billion in AI and energy infrastructure investments at a summit in Pennsylvania — joined by BlackRock, Palantir, Anthropic, and Chevron.

The headlines focused on the dollar amount. But here’s what matters: the physical layer of AI is finally getting attention.

• Blackstone is launching a $25B data center + power generation JV

• CoreWeave is building a $6B hyperscale facility in PA

• Over 60 execs gathered to coordinate training, permitting, and power access

AI doesn’t run on ideas. It runs on electricity.

Data centers could account for nearly 9% of U.S. electricity use by 2035. The administration’s response? Fast-tracked permits, gas + nuclear buildouts, and (yes) a quiet reversal on coal.

Investment takeaways:

• Grid capacity is the next competitive moat

• Energy security is AI security

• Mid-cap utilities, REITs, and nuclear may outperform before tech catches up

• Copper and power transmission ETFs are back in play

This isn’t hype. It’s industrial strategy — and the market hasn’t priced it.

Geopolitical Undercurrents: The Things That Don’t Move Markets — Until They Do

Markets are ignoring Ukraine again. They shouldn’t.

The U.S. just greenlit more Patriot missiles, and Trump floated 100% secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia. These are not empty gestures — they’re escalation triggers.

Meanwhile, China posted a better-than-expected 5.2% GDP print — not thanks to the U.S., but by pivoting to ASEAN and the Middle East. That’s not just resilience — that’s a live-fire test of global decoupling.

Trade isn’t slowing. It’s re-routing.

Oil, Energy, and the Saudi Slingshot

Despite geopolitical noise, oil hasn’t broken out. Why? Saudi Arabia is quietly ramping exports, and Asian demand is plateauing.

But here’s the catch: with tariffs reshuffling trade lanes and shipping risk back on the radar, logistics friction could suddenly jack up spot pricing.

Watch for:

• Shipping rates

• U.S. diesel inventories

• East-to-West refinery spreads

We’re not calling a crude supercycle. But volatility in Q3? That’s already here.

Stock of the Week: Achieve Life Sciences (ACHV)

Sector: Biotech | Market Cap: $100M | Theme: Addiction Treatment

While the world chases weight-loss drugs and Alzheimer’s pivots, Achieve Life Sciences is quietly working on something old-school: quitting smoking.

Their lead candidate, cytisinicline, is a plant-based drug in Phase III trials targeting nicotine addiction. It’s already approved in several countries, and if the FDA gets onboard, Achieve could own a rare monopoly in a surprisingly neglected market.

Key Stats:

• Cash runway into 2026

• Minimal debt

• Insider buying resumed in Q2

• Partnered with U.S. health networks for trials

Why Now? Pfizer’s Chantix is gone. Smoking still kills over 8 million people annually. ACHV has a shot at replacing one of the last FDA-approved cessation therapies — at a fraction of the cost.

No meme status. No hype cycle. Just a sharp asymmetric bet if Phase III clears.

Theme to Watch: The Shift to Strategic Decoupling

Forget globalization. The U.S. is building walls — not in rhetoric, but in raw materials.

Just this month:

• The Department of Defense took a direct equity stake in MP Materials

• The U.S. greenlit its first rare-earth mine in 70+ years

• Trade officials signaled that industrial policy is no longer passive — it’s the plan

We're watching this realignment spill into capital markets:

• Rare earths (MP, Lynas)

• Semicap tooling (ACLS, AMAT)

• Defense logistics (PLTR, HAL, ASTS)

This isn’t “Buy America” theater. It’s a sovereign supply chain doctrine.

Forward View (July 21–26, 2025)

Earnings:

• Netflix (NFLX): Anti-password monetization metrics

• Goldman Sachs (GS): Fixed income rebound + IPO pipeline

• Taiwan Semi (TSM): Cleanest read on global AI capacity

Macro to Watch:

• Housing Starts

• Initial Jobless Claims

• Fed rhetoric post-CPI

The Fed will speak. But pay more attention to what commodities, bonds, and small caps are already telling you: this is a policy regime shift.

Daly Asset Management Updates

We’re nearing the release of dalyassetmanagement.com, which will feature:

• Real-time strategy dashboards

• Public price target tracking

• Deep dive investment notes

• Access to DAM thematic models

More details coming soon.

When Everything’s Priced for Stability, Instability Pays

Markets are treating macro shocks like distractions. But here’s the reality: we’re entering a period of deliberate friction.

Tariffs aren’t going away. Rates won’t drop fast. And geopolitics is no longer “background risk” — it’s the main plot.

If your portfolio doesn’t reflect that, it’s not diversified. It’s just hopeful. Discipline beats prediction. Especially when the rules are changing.

Disclosures: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.